In order to analyze the reason of failure and improve the reliability of the idler shaft, this paper studies the reliability and sensitivity for the idler shaft based on Kriging model and Variance Methods respectively. The finite element analysis (FEA) of idler shaft is studied in ABAQUS firstly. Then, combining the performance function and various random variables, the Kriging model of idler shaft is established and verified. Based on Kriging model which has been established, the relationship between random variables and the response value is studied, and the function reliability is calculated which explains why the failure of the idler shaft occurred frequently in service. Finally, the variance-based sensitivity method is used for sensitivity analysis of influence factors, the result shows that the reliability of idler shaft is sensitive to the inner diameter of body A and inner diameter of body B, which could contribute for the analysis and further improvement of idler shaft.

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