With the expansion of oil exploration in deep waters, assessing the risks associated with offloading operations becomes essential in preventing accidents that may cause huge environmental disasters.
In this paper, it will be studied the system composed of a turret-moored FPSO connected to a shuttle tanker which is assisted by a tug boat to maintain its position during an offloading operation.
Using environmental data collected over a period of 6 years, from 2004 to 2009, from the Campos Basin in Brazil, it was calculated the equilibrium positions of the system considering its constraints (vessels have to keep a minimum alignment), and verified the stability of those equilibrium points for all the given conditions.
The results obtained were simplified and grouped into operational rules using machine learning classification techniques.
Based on this static analysis, it was calculated the FPSO headings probabilities during offloading operation and the expected down time of operation in the Campos Basin.