Analytical model is proposed to account for carbon emission behavior during replacement of power source from fossil to renewable energy in which sustainability of energy supply is stressed. Analyses show that energy payback time (EPT) should be much shorter than the doubling time of manufacturing cycle to secure adequate available energy during as well as after the replacement. Nuclear, small hydropower, and photovoltaic cell are taken as representative candidates and investigated as an option to replace fossil power until mid-century. Nuclear and small hydropower can be promising candidates but photovoltaic cell needs further development efforts to reduce EPT to avoid energy expense after the replacement.

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